Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
