A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
